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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expected inflation over the next year rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while longer-term expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside faster income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that consumers’ median inflation expectations for the next 12 months edged up to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while expectations for economic growth weakened and the expected unemployment rate rose. The monthly survey offers a view of household expectations across 11 euro area countries, including inflation, spending, jobs, housing and credit access, as in the July 2026 survey results.
Median inflation perceived over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5%. By contrast, expectations further out were unchanged: consumers placed inflation at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead. The ECB said uncertainty around expectations for inflation over the next year increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Households reported somewhat stronger expected growth in income and spending. Expected nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1.0%, while expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%. Perceived spending growth over the previous year also increased, reaching 5.3% from 5.2%.
The outlook for economic activity and jobs moved in the opposite direction. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers expected home prices to rise 3.5% over the next year, up from 3.4%; expected mortgage rates remained at 4.9%. The ECB also reported that net reports of tighter credit access, both over the past year and expected over the coming year, increased compared with August.
Households See Higher Costs and Job Risks
The results point to a mixed household outlook: short-term inflation expectations and expected spending growth rose, while growth expectations declined and anticipated unemployment increased. These measures matter because consumers’ expectations can inform how households plan spending and saving, and are among the indicators the ECB monitors when assessing economic conditions.
The survey does not establish that prices, unemployment or borrowing costs will move as respondents expect. It records reported perceptions and expectations, not a forecast by the ECB or a decision by its governing bodies. Still, the combination of higher expected inflation and tighter perceived access to credit may be relevant to households weighing purchases, housing costs and borrowing.
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How the ECB Survey Is Collected
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
The ECB says the survey supports policy analysis and complements other data sources. Its release notes that the statistics generally refer to the 2% winsorised mean, unless otherwise specified, and that the survey results do not represent the views of ECB decision-makers or staff. The bank also makes the microdata and methodological information available through its survey resources.
Income differences appeared across several measures. Respondents in the lowest income quintile reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest quintile. They also expected higher unemployment, home-price growth and mortgage rates. For example, expected mortgage rates were 5.7% for the bottom quintile and 4.4% for the top quintile.
“Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.”
— European Central Bank
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What the Survey Cannot Establish
The survey captures what respondents perceived or expected during a fieldwork period that ran from 27 August to 28 September; it does not show whether those expectations will be realised. The release does not identify a cause for the month-to-month changes in inflation, growth or unemployment expectations, so the figures alone cannot establish what drove them.
The ECB reported that uncertainty about inflation expectations increased slightly, but the release does not quantify that change in the headline summary. It also reports a higher net share of households describing or anticipating tighter credit conditions without giving the corresponding percentages in the supplied results. The survey’s findings are not a statement of the ECB’s policy outlook.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. The next release will show whether the September shifts in short-term inflation expectations, growth expectations, unemployment and credit conditions persisted or reversed.
Until then, the September figures can be read alongside other economic data, but they should be treated as a snapshot of consumer responses rather than a definitive forecast. The ECB publishes monthly aggregate results for individual countries and the euro area, with supporting data and methodological information available through its survey pages.
Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September 2026 survey find about inflation?
Median expected inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Perceived inflation over the previous year increased to 3.6%; expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%.
Did consumers expect the euro area economy to improve?
No. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months declined to -1.5% in September from -1.2% in August. The survey records consumer expectations and is not an ECB economic forecast.
What did respondents expect for unemployment?
The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Respondents’ perceived current unemployment rate was 10.6%, according to the ECB release.
When will the next ECB consumer survey results be released?
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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